US economic weakness to my furniture, and other industries affected exports

Our statistical analysis showed that if the United States GDP growth rate of a percentage point lower China's GDP growth rate is less than the lower rate of a percentage point. Even if the United States economic growth slowdown in the second half of 2007 to 0.7%, China's economic growth can still be easily maintained at more than 10%. The sluggish economy of the United States the influence of the Chinese stock market is very limited. Even if the United States economic downturn, China's economy has been able to maintain its growth momentum. In Asia, China is in the national economic slowdown in the United States and the impact of the EU's smallest country (Figure 1).

A good financial position to improve China's boycott of the ability of the United States economic recession

Once the United States economy from weak to negative growth in its GDP fell by one percentage point each, to the negative impact of the Asian countries will enlarge. If the United States GDP growth from the current 2% decline to 1%, if the Chinese government does not take any measures, China's GDP growth is likely from the current 11% decline 4.5% or so. However, the Chinese government is obviously not sit still, it will take some measures to stimulate domestic economic growth. These measures include: increasing public investment projects and increase spending on low-income subsidies and those who are laid off; Improve the export tax rebate rate of goods or cancel part of the export tax; The sharp drop in export growth and serious impact on the employment rate of circumstances prompted the devaluation of the Renminbi.

After five years of more than 10% sustained rapid GDP growth, China's banking system has most of the bad debts have been resolved, with the situation in 1998 when compared to the Chinese government's current financial situation better able to promote rapid economic growth (Figure 2). China's financial revenue over the past three years to an annual growth rate of 20%, is expected to increase in 2007 by 30%, the proportion of the budget deficit to the GDP also shrinking each year, and if necessary, the Chinese government has sufficient space to implement radical fiscal policy. According to the Chinese Ministry of Finance, China's financial coefficient of 1.3, means that the financial expenditure proportion of GDP for each additional one percentage point of GDP will be pushed up 1.3 percentage points. Therefore, we believe that even if the United States economy -1% negative growth, the Chinese government will also have the ability to maintain 7-8% economic growth.

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